Michael Polly Fort Myers / Cape Coral Real Estate News Blog

A look at the real estate inventory, home for sale, (resale homes only) revealed a drop in inventory! Before anyone celebrates let's look at the facts of this information. Yes it is good that there are a few less homes on the market. Inventory fell from 15,600 to 15,400 in round numbers, a drop of 200. Condos fell from 9550 to 9050, or about 500 condo/villa/townhomes came off the market. Sales were below 2006 so they didn't come off because of sales. They came off because people left and gave up for the summer or the banks have taken over the sale and they are not relisted in the MLS. For the last few months we have noticed high numbers of expired listings.

The real deals are getting scooped up quickly as buyers are sitting watching, like duck hunters in camoflague. Pricing remains key to sales.

Getting back to inventory supply, if we look at year over year inventory levels you'll notice the same thing happened last year before we began increases in the fall. Historically sales have declined from May - Dec. If these patterns hold the true we will see more of the same for the immediate future. Expect another slight drop in supply before the fall and the time when seasonal sellers return.

Michael Polly, Vice President Denny Grimes and Company

How can opinions vary so much when everyone is or should be looking at the same road signs? For example, a recent article in The News-Press reported that existing home sales for March were up 50 percent over February. Most of us read it and just mentally filed it away as positive information. One positive month does not equal a trend! But those with extreme opinions on our market, the outliers, have already cut it out and have it magnetically affixed to the refrigerator. It hangs as supporting evidence in favor of their beliefs, although they are completely opposite from each other.

One extreme believes that such positive news is a fabrication or manipulation of data in order to pander to the real estate and development industries, who are major advertisers with the paper. Can you spell conspiracy theory? The road sign this group sees is one you would only see while driving in the mountains, the one that warns of a steep descent ahead. Some in this group have e-mailed me and predicted that home values would fall to 1980 levels!

The other extreme believes that our residential market is well past the bottom (mostly sellers or agents who sold tons of investment property). They believe if it wasn't for all the negative stories in the newspaper, and people like me preaching that prices must fall, they would be back in the clover. Some have even encouraged me to announce that the good old days are back and that would open the floodgates of buyers. Their road sign would say "End Construction," as they feel there is nothing but smooth driving ahead. For some reason, this extreme sounds a lot better to me!

Then we have the middle ground folks. This group's sign would read "Speed Bump Ahead." There are positive indications that our market is recovering, such as inventory growth is slowing, pending sales are trying to inch upward and markets like new home construction in Lehigh appear to be reaching their bottom. Statewide, there seems to be positive momentum on solving spiraling property tax and insurance costs, two nagging issues that will determine how much of the Baby Boomer market we will really get.

Even with this cumulative news, patience will be a virtue here, regardless of how tempted you are to hit the gas pedal. It's hard to believe that it's been almost two years since our market peaked, but we are still very early in the recovery stage. There will be more negative headlines and sad stories before we reach the land of milk and honey, so keep your seat belt buckled and your expectations in an upright and locked position.

The bell-shaped curve may help me to understand the continuum of opinion, but my sign of choice would show a different curve, the one that indicates there is a cure ahead. Our market is beginning to turn, but we will experience bumps and ups and downs before we hit the straightaway. Don't worry about asking "are we there yet," because like driving on new pavement, you will know it when you get there.

 By Denny Grimes
Originally published on May 06, 2007 Fort Myers News-Press

With over 168 golf courses in this area, the word FORE was used differently in the past. In April, 783 foreclosure notices were filed. That is six times what they were one year ago. These numbers include homes, lots, and commercial property. The bulk of this is single family homes with the largest part homes that are a year old or less (494). These are the 'investors' who bought new construction with hopes and sometimes promises of selling with a profit. So instead of a hole-in-one, they now face a double bogey.

Looking ahead, what will this mean to future sales and appraisals. I know appraisers take into account the terms of the sale, however, if inventory is so large that it takes this action and pricing to move the property then that is where the market is. I think these numbers may take a greater toll in the future in the under $300,000 market as these properties get disposed of by the lenders.

If there is a bright side, they represent a great buying opportunity for someone looking to take advantage of todays market.

Michael Polly, Vice President Denny Grimes and Company, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Lee County